One asset has attracted more attention than most this year and that’s the Bitcoin price. When the price of the crypto asset crashed in 2018, most investors turned their backs on the Bitcoin and started looking elsewhere for attractive assets.
However, so far this year, it’s chalked up one of the most impressive performances of any financial asset. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is up around 240% year-to-date.
What’s interesting is the Bitcoin price has rallied as investors have been taking risk off the table in other markets. This seems to suggest investors are looking to the cryptocurrency to provide safety in a time of uncertainty.
With this being the case, I’m going to try and answer the question, is the Bitcoin price the best investment to own right now?
Buy, sell or hold
Trying to determine whether or not the Bitcoin price is an attractive buy has always been difficult. The problem is, no cash flows underpin the value of the cryptocurrency. As a result, its value is determined by supply and demand.
As it’s impossible to gauge future supply and demand accurately, it’s also impossible to predict what the price will do over the next six, 12, or 24 months.
Still, there seems to be some correlation between the demand for safe-haven assets, such as gold and bonds, and the demand for Bitcoin. As a result, we could assume the price will move higher as uncertainty prevails as more investors seek that safe haven in an uncertain environment.
Considering the above, as uncertainty prevails, crypto currencies like Bitcoin could be a good investment based on their performance so far this year. However, I think if you’re interested in Bitcoin, the best thing you can do is own it as part of a well-diversified portfolio.
Here at the Motley Fool, we’re long term investors and don’t believe in playing the market for short-term profits. With that in mind, I think some of the best investments in the current environment are low-cost FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 tracker funds.
The great thing about these funds is they buy the whole stock index, and you don’t need to worry about picking individual stocks. With uncertainty in the global economy growing, this is quite important because it’s going to be challenging to pick the winners and losers of any trade war.
Historical figures tell us that over the long term, the stock market generally rises but the performance of individual equities tends to be mixed.
So, in this time of uncertainty, I think the best way to make sure you don’t end up with your fingers burnt, is to buy an index tracker fund. You could buy the Bitcoin price alongside, but because it’s so difficult to tell what the future holds for the cryptocurrency, I think it’s only worthwhile doing so if you really know what you’re doing. Cryptocurrencies are not for the faint-hearted.
Bitcoin has been absolutely slammed over the past day. According to Coin Market Cap data, the cryptocurrency has shed some 7% in the past 24 hours, while altcoins have fallen by a similar amount.
Despite this bearish price action, which some analysts say is the start of yet another nasty downturn in this nascent market, some remain unfazed. One of these troopers is Michael Novogratz, formerly of Goldman Sachs and Fortress Financial. The current chief executive of Galaxy Digital recently explained in an interview that he expects for Bitcoin to head higher once again, shaking off the lull and the recent collapse in the price of the leading crypto asset — Bitcoin.
Speaking to Bloomberg, the former institutional investor stated that he believes that institutions are finally starting to enter into the cryptocurrency game, and will thus drive up the price of Bitcoin. Like many others in the industry, he believes that this class of investors will bring in monumental levels of capital to this space, outpacing any retail investors that came before them.
But what will institutions bring the Bitcoin price to? You might be asking.
Well, in previous interviews, he has suggested $20,000. As detailed by Ethereum World News on an earlier date, he stated that institutions will be the catalyst that will bring Bitcoin to $20,000, potentially by year’s end. Crazy, right? He stated back in late-July:
“I’m not selling the next time we hit $14,000. The second time we reach that level, [there may be] a move to $20,000. I don’t expect this to happen in the next few weeks: I don’t expect it to the middle or the end of the fourth quarter. But the next wave will come when the institutions — the state of X, Texas Teachers Union, and those guys — come in, and then you will see Bitcoin hit $20,000 and higher.”
The fundamentals seem to be supportive of such a rally, which would mean that Bitcoin would need to gain another 100% in under six months.
Bakkt, as this outlet reported, is expected to launch its Bitcoin futures and custody products in the coming weeks. The Wolf of All Streets, a prominent DJ and trader, bills the exchange as “arguably the most bullish event for institutional investors in the history of Bitcoin”. These new contracts “will require the actual purchase of BTC”, which is dramatically different than the model that the CME enlists, which settles all dues in cash.
With Fundstrat currently expecting for a “critical mass” of institutions to adopt the product, mass buying pressure could flood the underlying market.
Speaking of Fundstrat, Tom Lee, the co-founder of the research unit, is also target $20,000 by year’s end. He has stated on multiple occasions that a variety of factors, including the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts and the launch of the Libra project, will be catalysts for yet another BTC leg higher.
Bitcoin (BTC) made a big move to the upside after yesterday’s close that gave investors the false idea that the price had broken out of the symmetrical triangle and the descending channel both. However, it was nothing more than a fake out as the price fell back inside the descending channel erasing most of its gains. The bulls and bears are heavily divided here because this a major turning point. If the price goes up from here, the bearish resolve will be seriously weakened. On the other hand, if the price falls down from here that will be game over for the bulls as it would confirm the bear trend on larger time frames. The 4H chart for BTC/USD shows that the price remains in a descending channel and the RSI remains in a strong downtrend.
There is an acute lack of bullish momentum to push the price past the descending channel. The market makers are just looking for retail bulls to keep buying the dips but at some point the retail bulls are going to get tired and the market makers would then have to ‘help’ the price on its way down so as not to let shorts stack up. This is an excellent bearish setup but as always traders would be better off to avoid and wait and see approach to see which way the price swings. There is a successful rule in investing and it is called the Rothschild 80-20 rule. It states that you can take 20% of the move at the top and bottom and I’ll take everything in between. This is a rule that most successful traders follow. They don’t enter a position wishing and praying the price would swing a particular way.
Bitcoin (BTC)’s next big move hinges on what happens in EUR/USD. If the Euro takes a swing to the downside as we expect it to, then Bitcoin (BTC) will fall below $10,000. On the other hand, if EUR/USD swings to the upside which is still possible but not very probable, we may see Bitcoin (BTC) rise. If we take a look at the daily chart for EUR/USD, we can see that it is in a clear downtrend. The RSI has now run into resistance signaling that the price might be primed for a sharp decline from here.
It is important to note that the price of Bitcoin (BTC) is affected by movements in major markets particularly that in the S&P 500 (SPX), Gold and the EUR/USD forex pair. The Euro has been stalling a decline against the US Dollar for months now. We might finally see this decline come into effect if the US-China trade war escalates further or any similar development that leads to a strengthening dollar. The Fed is also concerned about the effect of its policies on the global economy but this move to the downside is very likely to come to fruition sooner or later. All the Fed or ECB can do now is stall this decline but it is likely to come into effect eventually and when that happens, Bitcoin (BTC) and the rest of the cryptocurrency market will take a devastating hit.
Nowadays, it seems everyone is bearish on Ethereum and its Ether token (ETH) except for Placeholder VC partner Chris Burniske, who, earlier this week, made the case for why he believes ETH/USD is a great long-term investment.
According to Burniske, the oft-cited narrative that the implosion of the ICO market led to Ether losing its use case is not entirely accurate. Rather, he posits that Ether is going through its first “mainstream bear market, just as Bitcoin did in 2014-2015.”
Given that hindsight always provides one with a clearer picture of the general trend, Burniske points out that 2014-2015 was the optimal risk-reward period for investors seeking Bitcoin exposure.
While all of this sounds encouraging, Burniske’s assessment goes very much against the grain of current investor consensus and the plethora of bearish signs exhibited on multiple time frames.
Ether’s trading stance remains bearish
Ether and Litecoin (LTC) turned bullish in September 2018 and both foreshadowed what was to come from Bitcoin, which at the time was locked in a tight range around $6,500. As shown by the 3-day Moving Average Convergence/Divergence Oscillator (MACD), Ether’s impressive bull run appears to be over.
The MACD crossed below the signal line and dipped below 0 shortly after Ether topped out at $364. According to the negative histogram, it’s been downhill ever since.
The 55-day moving average (DMA) has also dropped below the 100 DMA, while the 100 DMA is also on the verge of crossing below the 200 DMA on the daily time frame.
Daily volume is also screeching to a halt as Bitcoin’s dominance continues to rise and Ether’s dominance rate amongst altcoins has dropped from 10.53% to 7.76% over the past 3 months.
Selling volume is outpacing buying volume on the weekly timeframe and the ETH/USD pair is fast approaching the weekly support at $170. Below this is a precipitous drop to $100, then $80, both of which would be very unappetizing for investors.
Clearly, traders are placing their long-term bets on Bitcoin instead of Ether. In the past, Bitcoin consolidation after strong rallies led to traders transitioning into altcoins. But now, it seems these investors are choosing to take shelter in stablecoins instead whenever Bitcoin price goes south.
Are Ethereum supporters losing hope?
Ether is essentially teetering on the precipice of uncertainty with a bearish bias. The current weekly Doji candle on the ETH-USD weekly chart below supports this assessment.
Obviously, it’s going to take more than just a few oversold bounces to restore bullish investor sentiment to the largest altcoin by market cap.
What’s concerning, however, is it seems investors and blockchain zealots are losing faith in the project and its ability to scale — which could pose a larger threat to Ethereum’s long-term value proposition.
For what it’s worth, a quick perusal through crypto twitter allows one to gauge brewing negativity among many investors. Namely, core developers being too focused on hard forks, protocol upgrades and philosophical issues instead of ways to increase the value of the Ether.
Earlier in the year Gnosis founder Martin Köppelmann said that he does “not see ASICs as an existential threat to Ethereum neither is ProgPoW a long term important improvement. In such a case in my view Ethereum HAS TO STAY NEUTRAL and let market forces do its thing.”
Ethereum Classic technology coordinator Stevan Lohja appears to concur with Köppelmann’s point of view. Lojha tweeted:
“ProgPoW isn’t effective. You can’t fairly distribute mining because human production is incredibly unequal. You’ll always have a minority with a disproportionately higher output. Alienating the MVPs on your team could lead to future losses.”
Furthermore, with IEOs taking the place of ICOs and the transition of most of the largest altcoins by market cap to their own mainnets, the Ethereum network is left searching for a use case that will draw lucrative partnerships and retail investors.
Will a rising tide lift all ships?
Currently, dark clouds are gathering on Ether from multiple vantage points and the saving grace might be an explosive rally from Bitcoin as Ether typically follows BTC price action.
The ETH-BTC pair is also less than inspiring on the weekly time frame.
After forming a double bottom at 0.017594, the pairing is flashing a Doji candle, similar to the ETH/USD pair. Popular crypto-twitter analyst Dave the Wave, who is well known for his logarithmic regression analysis, believes that its not curtains for Etherum.
He opines that investors taking “a major position in BTC and a minor one in ETH covers all bases.”
Ether and Bitcoin price charts in 2017-2019 clearly show Ether is entering a mini bearish spat that will be followed by a period of consolidation in the run up to the next bullish cycle.
Of course, all of this could be dependent upon Bitcoin breaking above $12,500 again. But it’s also possible that Bitcoin’s market dominance will continue to grow as the 2020 halving event approaches.
Simply put, Bitcoin’s growing dominance is sucking all the air from the room and altcoins, including Ether, are asphyxiating.
Obviously, Ether has its users and potential use cases. The Ethereum network has huge capacity and there are a number of prominent projects and institutions using the protocol or investing in Ether on behalf of clients.
As previously reported by Cointelegraph, the World Bank recently raised an additional $33.8 million from the second round of its blockchain bond offering, which is featured on a private version of Ethereum blockchain dubbed “bond-i.”
This follows the first successful trial by the World Bank of an $81 million blockchain-based bond on the same platform last year.
The Nasdaq has also expressed serious interest in Ether (and other cryptocurrencies) and the exchange recently took part in a $27.5 million funding venture for ErisX, a crypto exchange offering spot and futures trading for a variety of digital currencies.
Only time will tell if Burniske is correct about Ether being in a bear market. Long-term investors are hopeful as they patiently waited 15-months for a trend reversal and Ether’s current 2019 all-time high of $364 was exciting but not exciting enough. While it is honorable that Ethereum core developers are dedicated to ensuring that the network is the best it can be there is an old African proverb that perfectly sums up the situation:
Bitcoin (BTC) has managed to remain above the $10,000 level all day and has reached a high of over $10,400 but the bounce has been on low volumes and so may not last.
Omkar Gobole wrote an analysis of the movement of bitcoin (BTC) earlier today on CoinDesk. It was last updated at 12:54 UTC.Bitcoin’s price was rising during his period of analysis to as high as $10,200 but Godbole argues that the path of least resistance is still downwards.BTC had found bids just below the 100-day moving average(MA) support at $9,900 last Wednesday and rebounded to a high so far of $10,255 earlier today. Investors could see this as a prelude to a much higher level. On August 15 BTC recovered from a similar below 100-day moving average support and this was followed by highs above $10,900 on August 20 a thousand dollar rally.
The hourly chart show the jump in price was accompanied by low volumes. The chart shows that buying pressure remained weak as BTC prices rose from $9,755 to $10,255. A low volume bounce is often short-lived.Bitcoin has also dived out of a rising wedge. This is a bearish reversal pattern and indicates the corrective jump from $9,755 has ended.According to technical theory the price observed at the beginning of a rising wedge formation becomes the minimum downside target once a breakdown is confirmed. Hence, there could be a drop down to the $9,755 level.There could be a rally to from $10,550 to $10,600 if prices break above the wedge’s high of $10,255 if this is accompanied by decent volumes. However, Godbole claims that the situation is still bearish as a prices remain below $10,956.
Daily and 4-hour charts
On August 15 BTC’s bounce from the 100-day MA support ended with a lower high at $10,956 a bearish sign. In the short term the bulls need to surpass the $10,956 level. The case for a drop to $9,457 will remain as long as prices remain below the $10,807 level.
On the three days up to Aug. 20 bitcoin created a bearish outside bar candlestick pattern. The bearish outside bar appears when a specific period’s price range engulfs the previous period’s high and low. The candlestick pattern represents the continuing sell off from the high of $12,325 reached during the first week of August.The probability of bitcoin’s price falling to the recent low of $9,467 appears high. As of Godbole’s posting, BTC was trading at $10,140 on Bitstamp making a gain of about 1.5 percent over 24 hours.
Bitcoin opened at $10,101 and has reached a high so far of $10,450 according to CoinDesk data. The low has been just above $10,000 at 10,034. At 18:15 Central Daylight Time the price was still at $10,394 a rise of about 2.9 percent during the 24 hours. So far there is no sign of the dropping back that Godbole sees. The top twenty altcoin market is mixed but with the majority being positive. The present price of bitcoin and the top altcoins can be found here.
Bitcoin is doing what it does best lately – bouncing off $10,000, but it wasn’t just falling below that magical number which brought out the buyers – the US-China trade war is helping too.
A sharp $300 improvement in the past 15 minutes has sent bitcoin to $10,405 at the time of writing.
The rise coincides with the latest developments in the US-China trade at a time when recent bitcoin price action confirms strong support at $10,000.
Bitcoin targets resistance at $10,777 and $11,400
The volume profile’s so-called point of control (red line) that shows the highest level of buying interest for a range of price points, on the 4-hour chart is reading $10,125 – that provide near-term support for bitcoin.
Bearish traders still hope for a dive towards $8,500 but that seems a doubtful strategy as things stand.
However, with bitcoin volatility not waning any time soon, a leg down is still in play at these levels unless bitcoin can take out overhead resistance $10,777 and $11,400 (black dashed lines).
US-China trade war is a bitcoin growth theme
Today’s sharp upturn is possibly linked to the resumption of hostilities in the US-China trade war.
OK, there hadn’t been a prior outbreak of peace but there is hope for a “constructive” meeting of the respective trade representatives of the two world’s two largest economies.
China is introducing tariffs in two batches – on September and 15 December on goods worth $75 billion at rates of 5% and 10%.
In addition, China is slapping a 25% tariff on imports of US autos. Crude oil and Soy beans are the other major casualties.
The US has removed some items and delayed others, regarding the $300 billion September tariff schedule introduction for other goods.
But whether it was the trade war heating up again or merely a rerun of a trading pattern previously seen in buying the dips under $10,000, the current price calms bullish nerves.
Bloomberg analyst expects Binance Venus Stablecoin To Boost Bitcoin
The early week’s run-up in the bitcoin price has continued to run out of breath as BTC dips back under five figures.
The BTC/USD instrument settled a session low of $9,841.59 at around 16:05 UTC today, establish its five-day low. The pair moved downwards despite having full-backing of strong fundamentals. Late last week, Intercontinental Exchange’s cryptocurrency arm, Bakkt, announced that it had received regulatory approval to launch its bitcoin futures contracts. The platform even finalized the launch-date on September 23, raising hopes of attracting institutional capital to the bitcoin markets.
The benchmark cryptocurrency dropped nevertheless, signifying that investors did not fully digest an otherwise bullish Bakkt announcement. That left the market with a handful of interconnected reasons that attempted to explain bitcoin’s downside sentiment. Here are three of them.
WEAKER GLOBAL SENTIMENT
A global slowdown kept investors’ purchasing sentiment at bay. A majority of them waited for the annual meeting of global central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, expecting a wave of new stimulus programs to address the recession concerns. Bitcoin appeared as a less-attractive asset for investors who were looking to park their capital in low-risk safe-havens. That explains a surge in demand for US Treasuries, which registered their best month since 2015.
It appears the early week rise in the bitcoin market did not come from the outside by from the underperforming, neighboring cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, many analysts believe that monetary easing policies would help bring more money to bitcoin, for investors would be able to borrow at lower interest rates.
“Bitcoin’s becoming increasingly a macro hedge for investors against things that could go wrong,” said Thomas Lee, co-founder of Fundstrats Global Advisors. “Rate cuts are adding liquidity. Liquidity is pushing money into all these risk assets and also hedges, which is helping Bitcoin.”
RISING WEDGE ON BITCOIN 1H CHART
Rising Wedge are bearish patterns, characterized by price trending upwards inside a contracting range. The technical indicator typically sends the asset’s rate lower once it reaches the apex of the Wedge. Bitcoin, for all the past few days, was trending inside a Rising Wedge, as shown in the chart below.
Bitcoin breaks down from a rising wedge pattern
The bitcoin price today broke down from the same design, confirming its bias. It explains that the reason for the fall could have been merely technical, and has nothing to do with the cryptocurrency’s longer-term bias. The BTC/USD pair now expects to bounce back from the $9,651 area.
Arguable yet highly likely, the latest bitcoin price drop could have been driven by whales – a slang for investors holding a larger quantity of bitcoins. The early week saw the cryptocurrency rising by more than $800, or circa 8.5 percent, in the wake of Bakkt announcement. It appears that big traders led the price rally, and drove small investors in the ride to the upside. Nevertheless, they exited their long positions right upon entering their target price area. In the entire process, no outside money entered the bitcoin market.
These are some of the possible reasons behind the bitcoin price drop. Have something to add? Then do share in the comment below.
Why do you think Bitcoin has fallen back below five figures again? Add your thoughts in the comment section below!
Bitcoin has been in a steady uptrend since the weekend. The short term picture looks promising but a conflicting technical signal indicator on a longer term chart could spell the end of the upturn.
Bitcoin Almost at $11,000
A few hours ago during Asian trading, BTC posted a weekly high of $10,950 according to Tradingview.com. The price is back at last Tuesday’s resistance turned support level and up almost 10 percent since the weekend dip. In the hours that followed there was a slight pullback to around $10,800 where Bitcoin is currently trading.
BTC price 1 hour chart – Tradingview.com
The one hour chart revealed a ‘golden cross’ has just formed with the short term 50 hour moving average crossing the longer term 200 hour MA. This is a bullish trend reversal signal for this time frame and has come nine days after the opposing signal on the down trend. The next level of resistance for BTC from here is $11,400, should the trend continue upwards.
Four Hour Death Cross
The longer term four hour chart shows the complete opposite however with the 50 moving average about to cross below the 200 in a ‘death cross’. This usually indicates the continuation of a down trend on this time frame.
BTC price 4 hour chart – Tradingview.com
It should be noted though that these are lagging indicators which derive their positions from previous prices, not future ones. So a cross on the four hour chart does not necessarily mean that BTC is about to dump back to $9,000!
Zooming out to that day chart is still bullish as the uptrend is intact and the six weeks of consolidation at this price range has continued. The market is very choppy at the moment and these price swings are offering no indication of when a sustained movement in either direction will occur. The conflicting crosses just exemplify the current status of the market.
Price does not move in a straight line, as noted by crypto trader ‘BenjaminBlunts’, so patience is the key for those seeking longer term gains.
“pretty much where i feel we are in the $btc cycle, nothing moves in straight lines … you want them sick gains? then be patient, because patience is a virtue.”
There are a lot of fractals in the historical Bitcoin price charts and these repeating patterns are likely to continue as the asset marches upwards. Buying the dip has been advised frequently and those that have done exactly that since the beginning of the year will be sitting pretty right now.
Bitcoin (BTC) made an impressive rally in the past 24 hours but that rally has now come to an end as the price has run into a strong resistance at the 38.2% fib retracement level at the $10.691 level. This is a strong resistance level but it is important to note that the price is currently trading above the 50 day EMA. It shot up past the 21 day EMA as well but it soon retraced below it and is now expected to close the day below both the 38.2% fib retracement level as well as the 21 day EMA. That would formally mark the end of this bullish advance to the upside as further downside follows in the days and weeks ahead.
It is becoming increasingly clear that there is not enough bullish momentum for BTC/USD to rally past the 38.2% fib retracement level towards the top of the descending triangle. The most likely scenario is that the price is not going to rally to the top of the descending triangle and end up crashing below it to find a temporary bottom around in the low $8,000s. This could pave the way for a rally to the upside but investors need to be careful as this move will tilt the balance in favor of the bears and mark the beginning of a more brutal correction. Recently, the Token Plus exit scammed siphoned off more than $3 billion dollars of their victims money. Now that is an obvious exit scam where the team just runs away with your money. However, there are other more organized scams in this space that are yet to unfold.
Amateur con artists run away with investors’ funds but those that are more skilled in the game try to do this Bernie Madoff and Elizabeth Holmes style. They try to sell you a dream and a hope and they dump on you while you buy. Sounds a bit far-fetched? Just do a comparison of market cap and coin supply of most of the ICOs. I know it is going to be hard in some cases to see what time insiders bought and sold but even a look at token supply should tell you what time the founders were dumping tokens on their investors.
In my days as a penny stocks trader, I have seen all kinds of things but usually it is a company pretending to be big. They do not necessarily have the wrong intentions; they just want to get the money to grow. That was wrong too but it comes nowhere close to what we have here. If we take a look at the 4H chart for BTC/USD, we can see that the bearish pennant has been broken to the upside. This is a prime example of a fake out. Market makers are fighting tooth and nail to get traders to buy those coins, preferably on margin so they can dump on them in the weeks ahead. It is important to note that Bitcoin (BTC) could still have a future long term but at this point we are a long way from the end of this bear market just yet.
The price of the top cryptocurrency Bitcoin has been sideways for a while since it dropped from the yearly high of $13,300. It has slumped to mid $9,000s a number of times which some considered an opportunity to buy again.
While some still expect Bitcoin to dip to $8,000 before they buy, a cryptocurrency analyst and trader Josh Rager says it is an unrealistic dream and even buying at $11,000 is not a loss as Bitcoin is likely to hit new yearly highs before 2019 rounds up.
Those who are waiting to buy “the bottom” will feel silly eventually according to Rager. “The only ppl who will feel silly are the ones with empty bags still waiting to buy “the bottom”…,” he wrote in a Twitter post.
New Bottoms Unlikely
Despite the dip to $9,000, some intending buyers have deliberately refused to buy at that price and are hoping for a dip to $8,000 or lower. A recent poll by Weiss Crypto Ratings revealed that although most people were waiting to buy a dip to $10,000, a significant percentage is waiting to buy at $8,000 and another significant percentage expects Bitcoin to dip below $5,000 before they buy.
This is however not a likely scenario as Rager himself had said a number of times. In an earlier tweet, he said those expecting a dip to $8,000 will be disappointed and the only chance they had was to buy at the 30% pullback which took Bitcoin down to $9,000 for the first time since the yearly high. Another 4-digit opportunity still presented itself two days ago but it may be over as Bitcoin has gone way above $10,000 and might be going higher and not lower.
The Bakkt Effect
If there is any reason why Bitcoin is expected to go higher, it is because of the Bakkt launch in September. Just following the announcement of the launch, Bitcoin rose by over $500 in an hour.
This may be pointing to the effect the actual launch could have on the price of the asset. If the trend continues, it is unlikely that Bitcoin will dip to $8,000 or lower again this year and the chance of that happening next year may be slimmer.